The Danger of “Resulting”
I like to play blackjack. I’m not a card counter, but I know the basic strategy and odds. So, imagine that I’m sitting at a table and I’m dealt an 11 and the dealer is showing a 6. Strategy tells me to “double-down” because the odds say that I have an 84% chance of winning that hand. But when the dealing is done, the dealer wins. Here’s the question: did I make a bad decision? The answer is “no”. I made the right decision, even though the results were not what I’d hoped.
In her brilliant book, “Thinking In Bets”, author and professional gambler Annie Duke calls our tendency to judge our decisions solely by the outcome, “resulting”. If I judged my decision at the blackjack table by the fact that I lost, the next time that same hand appears I would play it differently. But that would be a mistake. I made the right decision. Unfortunately, luck was not on my side.
This scenario has profound implications for the kinds of decisions that leaders have to make every day. Like a gambler, business leaders often have to make decisions without complete information. We play the odds. Sometimes we get lucky, and sometimes we don’t. As much as we’d love to deny it, luck often plays a role in the results of our decisions, for better and for worse. In retrospect, I’ve made some incredibly foolish decisions that turned out great. And I’ve made some brilliant decisions that failed miserably. And I’ll bet you have too.
The key to making better decisions lies in separating the decision from the outcome. This is what separates professionals from amateurs: the ability to think clearly when evaluating the decision, regardless of how it turns out.
The problem with evaluating decisions solely by their results is that we may come to conclusions that are not supported by facts. For example, if an investor evaluates a portfolio solely on current returns, they may never recognize any potential for future profits. As a result, they may be tempted to make short-sighted decisions that may not serve them in the long run.
Focusing on our process rather than outcomes helps us evaluate each decision independently and accurately. It also forces us to ask ourselves questions like "What information did I have when I made this decision? Would I make the same decision with all different outcomes?" In other words, it encourages us to be mindful of our decisions and understand why we chose one option over another.
At the end of the day, no one can predict the future and luck will always factor into our lives. But by understanding our own thought processes more deeply and assessing our decisions on an individual basis, we can become better decision makers who are ready to face whatever comes our way.
Questions to Consider:
How do you make sure that you're not focusing too much on the results of a decision and not the process that led to them?
What role do you believe luck and unforeseen circumstances play in the outcome of your successful decisions? Your unsuccessful decisions?
Are there any tools or techniques that you use to help with this?
Do you find it difficult to keep your emotions out of decision making? If so, how do you deal with that?
Can you give examples of leaders in your organization getting caught up in the results of decisions instead of the process?
How can you help the people in your organization avoid “resulting”?
